Charley Bravo's Stop Brexit Blog

Theresa May has brought a 'deal' back from Brussels that she says is in the "national interest". Leaders of the 27 EU countries are expected to approve the deal tomorrow, Sunday (indeed now have approved it). But the deal is looking unlikely to get approval from Parliament. Over 80 Tory MPs have indicated they will vote against it, both Leavers and Remainers. Plus all the other parties including the DUP. If the deal is not approved, May has indicated that she will not resign, nor hold a People's Vote. So what is her Plan B? WHAT ABOUT THE DEAL? Firstly, though, why would the deal be rejected? There are objections to specific aspects of the legal Withdrawal Agreement, such as the Irish backstop and having to take EU rules with no say in them. The accompanying non-binding Political Declaration for the Future Relationship is just that. A vague wish-list that amounts to a 'blindfold Brexit'. That is all enough to reject the 'deal'. But in

To understand why the EU is so dominant in the Brexit negotiations, let's first understand a similar situation. Let's imagine the Isle of Wight wanted to leave the UK and already had its own currency, the Grockel.  Let’s say 1% of UK exports were to the IoW, but 50% of the IoW's exports went to the UK. Also 50% of the IoW’s imports were from the UK, which exceeded the IoW's exports in value, resulting in a trade surplus for the UK. Should that trade stop it would be an annoyance to the UK but catastrophic to the IoW: •    The IoW would lose half its exports •    The IoW would lose vital imports such as food and medicines It would be obvious in that situation that the UK would have a stronger position in the negotiations to retain all or at least some of that trade.  That's despite its trade surplus with the IoW.  The UK would naturally use its dominance in negotiations. Let’s now change the figures to 8% of UK exports, 42% of IoW exports, and 57% of IoW

It is easy to be negative about the draft Brexit deal.  So here’s some positive thoughts about the UK remaining in the EU, both financial and social, by being "Better Off With Europe": WE’RE #BetterOffWithEurope Than with the USA Than crashing out of the EU with no collaborations or trade deal defined Than the Brexit ‘deal’ that loses sovereignty and also leaves our future undefined THE ECONOMY We’re #BetterOffWithEurope For a stronger economy For more jobs - there is no ‘Jobs first’ Brexit available For more money for the NHS and public services from employee taxation and VAT FREEDOM FOR BRITS IN EU27 We’re #BetterOffWithEurope For the opportunity to travel, live, work and retire anywhere in EU27. That would be lost, by reciprocation, if UK stops European people from doing that in the UK For some 1.5 million Brits already in EU27 For us still in the UK, plus future generations COLLABORATIONS We’re #BetterOffWithEurope For all the collabora

FIRST, THE LOGIC Now we have a draft ‘deal’, we’ve heard much about the Withdrawal Agreement, its Irish ‘backstop’ provision and much else that people do not like. But much more significant is the “Framework for the Future Relationship” in the deal, otherwise known as the ”Political Declaration”. That’s what packs the punch.  Ouch! At only 7 pages, this second document barely scratches the surface of what needs to be negotiated.  But nonetheless it provides two important insights into Brexit: In addition to the trade in products and services, it lists out the other primary aspects where we have collaborated with our European neighbours.  Aviation, security and medicines to name but three.  These arrangements will all cease without replacement on 29 March next year unless there is an agreement.  ‘No deal’ really is falling off a cliff!  A LOSE-LOSE for UK and EU alike. Which is why the EU prefers a deal.  But everything will need to be negotiated in the 21-month ‘Transition

Theresa May is winning plaudits for her dedication to seeing the Brexit project through. What's next? Brexit is fatally flawed. Firstly Theresa is being driven by an intent to honour the marginal 2016 referendum result, which everyone knows was won by lies, deceit and criminality. Dishonourable. Secondly the ‘deal’ has major flaws which means it satisfies very few.   In particular the Political Declaration (Framework for the Future Relationship) is only 7 pages. Substantially all the negotiation about the future will need to be done AFTER the UK leaves the EU, when it cannot easily go back.  A 'Blind Brexit'.  That is unacceptable to Leavers and Remainers alike. Thirdly the latest polls indicate that support for Remain is clearly over 50%, with her ‘deal’ lagging behind the horror of No Deal. The latest from YouGov about the deal is consistent with polls just before the deal showing Remain support well over 50%.  No majority support for Brexit of any kind. Logi

Alongside the Withdrawal Agreement, which is getting the lion’s share of media coverage, the Brexit 'deal' also has a “ Framework for the Future Relationship ” . This is also being referred to as the "Political Declaration", which is part of its full title. What is this Framework and is it acceptable? As the name implies, it is looking to how the UK will interact with the EU in future.  At only 7 pages, there is very little on trade, and only one short section on each collaboration topic such as aviation. This means that the future relationship remains to be negotiated AFTER the UK has left the EU on 29 March 2019. A Blind Brexit.  That is unacceptable. There is nothing in the Framework to suggest the level of contributions the UK will have to pay to the EU.  Yet the Withdrawal Agreement suggests there will need to be contributions, both for the Transition Period and thereafter.  No way to judge whether the almost £40billion demanded in the Withdrawal Agreem

Today the Cabinet considers the “deal” discussed into the early hours between the UK and the EU27’s negotiating teams. The media is focusing on what is in it.  But we mustn't lose sight of whether it contains everything that's needed.   Nor lose sight of the costs.  Overall, is it a good deal?  Or a bad deal? Often referred to by the media as the Withdrawal Agreement, I understand there are two documents: Withdrawal Agreement, closing off the past Framework for the Future Relationship This follows Article 50(2) of the Lisbon Treaty, that requires that “…the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union.” The “Framework for the Future Relationship” should cover at least three key aspects, if not in the Withdrawal Agreement: Future trading relationship, both for goods and services Other collaborations, such as aviation, me

This weekend the EU27 rejected the UK’s latest proposal for the Irish border, and the so-called ‘backstop’.  There are other issues still to be resolved.  The ‘Deal’ is already out of time, as it should have been agreed by the EU27 at the mid-October summit. Jo Johnson has joined Dr Phillip Lee in resigning as a minister over Brexit. What Theresa May does next is how history will judge her.  So it is time to reconsider why the current deal the UK has with the EU as a member is better than anything that could be agreed as a non-member, and why there should now be a #PeoplesVote. THE UK’S ECONOMIC POSITION The USA, EU and China are in a league of their own economically. The UK is only sixth, far smaller in population and economic might. The expectation is to fall rapidly to 11th, as other larger populations overtake us. We’ve seen how the USA has bullied China.  Can you imagine how the USA would bully the UK? Forget the ‘special relationship’. Likewise the EU has already sho

The BBC published this graphic of the "Steps to UK leaving the European Union", below, a couple of years ago.  I believe it is still valid.  In particular:  Once the draft deal had been put to the European Union, there are two further ratification steps within the EU, neither of which guarantee approval There would also need to be approval of the draft deal in the UK, again not guaranteed.  We are still wrangling how that should be done, both in Parliament and whether there should be a further referendum on the facts of the final deal The leave date of 29 March 2019 can only be extended under Article 50(3) by agreement of all 27 EU countries Furthermore, Article 50 did not stipulate how notification could be withdrawn, or what conditions would attach.  The author of Article 50 believes the UK can withdraw unanimously, without agreement of the EU, and on current terms. But that is disputed, and is now the subject of a court case to clarify.    There are three key im