What is Theresa May's Plan B?

Theresa May has brought a 'deal' back from Brussels that she says is in the "national interest". Leaders of the 27 EU countries are expected to approve the deal tomorrow, Sunday (indeed now have approved it).

But the deal is looking unlikely to get approval from Parliament. Over 80 Tory MPs have indicated they will vote against it, both Leavers and Remainers. Plus all the other parties including the DUP.

If the deal is not approved, May has indicated that she will not resign, nor hold a People's Vote. So what is her Plan B?


WHAT ABOUT THE DEAL?

Firstly, though, why would the deal be rejected? There are objections to specific aspects of the legal Withdrawal Agreement, such as the Irish backstop and having to take EU rules with no say in them. The accompanying non-binding Political Declaration for the Future Relationship is just that. A vague wish-list that amounts to a 'blindfold Brexit'. That is all enough to reject the 'deal'.

But in addition there is a more fundamental problem. The Spanish objection in respect of Gibraltar has highlighted a major issue. The 'deal' is only an agreement to enter negotiations proper AFTER the UK has left the EU. The final deal needs unanimous approval of all 27 countries.  They can all raise objections and effectively demand concessions from the UK. Usually a party can walk away from a negotiation. But the UK can't walk away, stuck in the terms of the Withdrawal Agreement. The EU has the UK over a barrel. Hardly "in the national interest". Would any MP willingly agree to that?

The 'deal' has a very nasty sting in its tail.


BACK TO THERESA MAY's PLAN B

There's talk of getting the 'deal' through second time around, should ti fail first time, but that looks unlikely. Renegotiating with the EU has been ruled out. A General Election won't help.

So if the 'deal' is not approved, the choice as Theresa May has said is between No Deal and No Brexit. The EU has also indicated they are "best ready for No Brexit".  No Deal is incredibly damaging, and only a few ultra-Remainers support it.

I can understand her reluctance to hold a Peoples Vote, in case No Deal is selected.

So what is her Plan B? Could it be that she will give MPs a vote between No Deal and No Brexit? That may be her only remaining option.

Decisions of the imminent court cases about revoking the Article 50 notification on 27 November and declaring the 2016 referendum null and void on 7 December may provide her with the opportunity.

Assuming she is still in post. But then any new PM, Tory or Labour, would realistically have only the same options.

If Plan B is a vote on No Deal or No Brexit, then No Brexit is the likely winner.  That means the vote on the 'deal' is effectively Deal or No Brexit.

Dominic Raab has indicated he would back No Brexit given such a choice. How about the other Brexiters? Given the sting in the deal's tail, it is quite possible they will still vote down the 'deal' effectively back No Brexit too.  As will many other MPs. We wait in wonder.