Why is the EU so Dominant in the Brexit Negotiations?

To understand why the EU is so dominant in the Brexit negotiations, let's first understand a similar situation.

Let's imagine the Isle of Wight wanted to leave the UK and already had its own currency, the Grockel.  Let’s say 1% of UK exports were to the IoW, but 50% of the IoW's exports went to the UK. Also 50% of the IoW’s imports were from the UK, which exceeded the IoW's exports in value, resulting in a trade surplus for the UK.

Should that trade stop it would be an annoyance to the UK but catastrophic to the IoW:
•    The IoW would lose half its exports
•    The IoW would lose vital imports such as food and medicines

It would be obvious in that situation that the UK would have a stronger position in the negotiations to retain all or at least some of that trade.  That's despite its trade surplus with the IoW.  The UK would naturally use its dominance in negotiations.

Let’s now change the figures to 8% of UK exports, 42% of IoW exports, and 57% of IoW imports from the UK.  Still with the UK having a trade surplus in value.  The only practical difference is that the UK would be somewhat more dependent on that trade.  The IoW’s position would still be that the loss of much of that trade would be catastrophic.  The UK would still be dominant in the negotiations, but keen to strike a deal.

Moving to World Trade Organisation rules would take time to implement.  A lot needs to be agreed, and the systems would need to be put in place.  That would likely take 3-5 years.  In the meantime it would be chaos.  The IoW’s economy and way of life would suffer substantially.  No Deal would not be pragmatic.


THE EU AND THE UK

The second set of figures, however, are for the EU and the UK for 2017.  The UK is the island off mainland Europe, and the UK's role is reversed.  It's no surprise that the UK has been in the weaker position in these Brexit negotiations. The EU has been dominant.

Moving to WTO rules is not a pragmatic option, as explained above.   No Deal is therefore not an option, and never has been. 

So how about Theresa May’s deal?  It avoids the chaos of No Deal, but leaves substantial negotiations for the future relationship until after the UK has left the EU. That will cover not just trade, but all other collaborations such as aviation, medicines and security.  The UK will be no stronger than now, probably weaker, and will have to pay the price.  It’s absurd, whatever the basis for the final trade deal.

No Deal is unacceptable.  The proposed deal is unacceptable. There’s so much to lose.

It seems that xenophobia is driving Theresa May in these negotiations. Yet we are reliant on EU nationals for staffing our NHS, harvesting our crops, and their work in a host of other industries.  More than 3 million have made the UK their home.   Personally I reject xenophobia, and I believe that the majority of UK voters would too if they understood how dependent we are on EU nationals for our way of life.

The only logical option is to #StopBrexitNow  We are "Better Off With Europe".

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