The Logic and Emotion of Brexit

FIRST, THE LOGIC

Now we have a draft ‘deal’, we’ve heard much about the Withdrawal Agreement, its Irish ‘backstop’ provision and much else that people do not like.

But much more significant is the “Framework for the Future Relationship” in the deal, otherwise known as the ”Political Declaration”. That’s what packs the punch.  Ouch!

At only 7 pages, this second document barely scratches the surface of what needs to be negotiated.  But nonetheless it provides two important insights into Brexit:

1. In addition to the trade in products and services, it lists out the other primary aspects where we have collaborated with our European neighbours.  Aviation, security and medicines to name but three.  These arrangements will all cease without replacement on 29 March next year unless there is an agreement.  ‘No deal’ really is falling off a cliff!  A LOSE-LOSE for UK and EU alike.
2. Which is why the EU prefers a deal.  But everything will need to be negotiated in the 21-month ‘Transition period’ AFTER the UK leaves the EU. The UK has had little leverage with the EU so far, and will have even less after it leaves.  Surely that is unacceptable to Leavers and Remainers alike? Furthermore the negotiation would normally take 5-10 years, followed by a further 2-3 years to build the systems and other infrastructure needed.  21 months is simply not enough.

So logically neither a ‘no deal’ Brexit nor the proposed Brexit deal is pragmatic or sensible.  The prospects of a different or substantially improved deal have been ruled out by the EU.  Mainly because the rules that underlie the Union would need to be bent, and they are adamant they are not prepared to do that.  Would you in their position?  Of course not.  Brexit is this deal or no deal.

That only leaves one logical choice – to stop Brexit.  Withdraw the Article 50 notification either by declaring the 2016 referendum result null and void, due to lies deceit and criminality, and/or after holding a #PeoplesVote which polls suggest would confrim. A second referendum would take longer, and probably require the March leaving date to be put back, something the EU27 would need to agree.  Likely but not guaranteed.

Donald Tusk, the President of the EU Commission has already recently said that they are ready for a No Deal Brexit, a Deal Brexit but  “best prepared for a No Brexit scenario”.  The EU prefers the UK to Remain.  It is purely up to the UK.


THAT’S THE LOGIC.  WHAT ABOUT THE EMOTIONS?

Like many Leavers, my gut feel is it would be good for the UK to be independent.  But the world has changed.  Many issues are now multinational.  The environment, climate change, the increasing dominance of multinational corporations, aviation and much else besides. 

We want to keep the City in London as the dominant force in Europe.  It not only provides jobs but the tax take to pay for the NHS and other public services on which so many people rely.  Austerity Plus is not what anyone wants if tax receipts dry up.

We’re already seeing jobs move to Dublin, Frankfurt and other European locations, with Brexit cited as the reason.  Each day’s delay risks more losses.  More strain on the money for public services.

So now I feel it is much more important that we collaborate with our European neighbours.  We’re better off with Europe.  That means through the auspices of the EU, not outside it.

Remaining in the EU gives us a number of other advantages:

• The freedom to travel, live, work and retire throughout Europe, not just in the UK.  UK citizens are being put in a very difficult position by the deal, and that will cut off your options too – and your children’s and grandchildren’s
• We rely heavily on European nationals for the many aspects of our daily life. The NHS, hospitality businesses such as coffee shops and hotels, and harvesting the food we need.  It is madness to send EU nationals home or make them feel unwelcome, and make it more difficult for new folks to come here in future.
• The current arrangement with the EU leaves the UK outside the Euro and outside of the Schengen agreement, which actually gives the UK ultimate control of its borders.  If the UK leaves the EU and subsequently asks to rejoin, these two concessions are unlikely to be available.  The UK would lose these two key aspects of its sovereignty.  Do you want that?

So I feel strongly that leaving the EU would be giving our country away.  Not like Theresa May, who says she feels a Brexit deal is in the UK’s best interests.  Do we really want to give our country away?

Or is it simply “We’re better off with Europe”?