Charley Bravo's Stop Brexit Blog

Yesterday was an amazing day in Parliament.  Not only Labour MPs refusing to defeat the government, which hit the headlines, but what had happened earlier. Chuka Umunna asked an Urgent Question relating to the announcement by the Electoral Commission about the official Leave campaign’s activities in the 2016 Brexit referendum.  The organisations had overspent their limit, and various people related to the organisations had been referred to the police for alleged criminal activity.  There was also other alleged illegal activity. Chloe Smith, The Parliamentary Secretary for the Cabinet Office, bravely answered questions but said two amazingly dreadful things.  Whilst there would be sanctions against individuals and the organisations involved: The government would not be sacking the ministers that were involved at a senior level in those Leave organisations, nor even putting them on gardening leave whilst investigations take place The government wold press on with honouring the R

This morning Dr Liam Fox was on the radio saying that because 17.4 million people voted for Brexit, democracy must be served by delivering on Brexit. Is he really that much out of touch?  In the same news bulletin it was confirmed that members of the official Leave campaign have been fined by the Electoral Commission and referred to the police for criminal activity associated with the 2016 Brexit Referendum.  The only conclusion is that the Referendum result should be declared void, especially as the Leave win was only marginal. [Being debated as I write in Commons] The Referendum as a travesty for democracy.  Even without the criminality, the lies and half truths from both sides were utterly unacceptable.  I know people who have angrily disengaged from politics as a result. If Liam wants to support democracy, he needs to support calls for the Referendum result to be declared void, and the Article 50 notification to be withdrawn.

The Chequers plan for Brexit has been widely slated.  By Brexiters for being a sell out, by business for being unworkable in practice and by Remainers for leaving the UK as a vassal state, with no formal influence on rules. This was after the Chequers meeting had agreed that a ‘hard’ ‘no deal’ iss not affordable economically, and doesn’t provide collaborations in areas such as security, aviation and health. On that basis Brexit is dead.  So what does Theresa May do next? She is now confirmed as appearing on the Andrew Marr Show at 9am on BBC1 tomorrow, Sunday. Apparently to defend the Cheequers proposal. We shall see what else. The thing is, both a ‘no deal’ Brexit and some softer compromise were both widely predicted before the referendum as being unacceptable either to the UK or the EU or both. Theresa May is a smart cookie.   I’d discussed a number of issues with her as my MP.  Very smart.  She must have known the predictions. But she also knew, once the Brexit result ca

This morning the national papers proclaimed three messages: The Brexiters don’t like the Chequers proposal Business doesn’t like the Chequers proposal (FT) Nor does Trump.  That famous US/UK trade deal that would light the sunlit uplands isn’t going to happen.  Certainly not in any decent way for the UK. The day’s news has since been dominated by Trump’s visit.  But one thing is clear.  Given that the Cabinet rejected a “no deal” Brexit last Friday, Brexit is dead. The iPaper hit the nail on the head this morning, declaring on page 4 “ Trump sparks row as he questions May’s commitment to leaving EU ” Indeed my belief is that May has never had such a commitment.  That's as maybe. The only option now is the remain in the EU.  How? See my earlier post titled “ MPs - Your Country Needs You ”

This is where the UK currently stands after the Cabinet meeting on Friday 6th July: “No deal” This has been ruled out as being too expensive and impractical not just for trade but for other collaboration such as aviation, security and health.  That has been accepted by the Cabinet and all MPs except for the hardest Brexiters. The Chequers Proposal This was agreed by Cabinet on Friday and is being attacked by both Leavers and Remainers.  Boris Johnson has called it the UK becoming a “colony”.  Certainly a “vassal state”, taking rules with no influence over them.  The proposal is as good as dead, even before the white paper is published to provide the detail, and before the EU reject the proposal for being cherry-picking The only option left is to Remain In the last few hours, since the previous blog article , the DUP and Leavers led by Jacob Rees-Moog have raised amendments (objections) to the legislative Bill being presented to the Commons next week. These will effectivel

It’s the morning of Wednesday 11 July as I write  Theresa May presented the Chequers Brexit Proposal to Parliament on Monday afternoon, and yesterday was chance for reaction.  So let’s summarise: The proposal is a soft Brexit as the UK cannot afford the cost and disruption of a hard Brexit The proposal is the best the UK could achieve whilst supporting business, and so was accepted by the Cabinet. It’s a “jobs first” Brexit proposal, snookering Labour’s approach (in principle even though they have no plans in detail) The proposal nonetheless requires the UK to become a “vassal” state, leading to Brexiters like Boris Johnson saying the UK would become a colony.  Remainers agree. Various Brexiters have resigned, notably the two most senior in David Davis and Boris Johnson But there are not the number of rebels prepared to risk a general election to challenge May for the leadership The proposal is cherry picking, so will be unacceptable to the EU In other words: The Cheque

I write this late afternoon on Tuesday 10 July. Theresa May has held her first Cabinet meeting since Boris Johnson resigned.   The two vice-chairs of the Conservative party have just resigned.    The Times printed a front page this morning saying “ Cabinet in crisis” “… on day of chaos ”. Yet Laura Kuennsberg of BBC reported at lunchtime “ PM just arrived – looking remarkably relaxed after yday’s mayhem ”. How? Why?   If I was Theresa May I would be on the crest of a wave.  Everything going to plan.  Let me explain.    UP UNTIL YESTERDAY LUNCHTIME, MONDAY Since the Chequers deal was announced on Friday, I’ve been saying that this is just a stepping stone to Article 50 withdrawal.   Why? Yesterday I wrote about what I believe to be May’s Master Plan .   Her objectives since being appointed leader have been, I believe: Withdraw Article 50 notification so UK remains in EU Consign Brexiters to history, so Europe is no longer the bugbear of the Tory party 

Cast you mind back to early July 2016.  Imagine you are down to the last two, competing against Andrea Leadsom for the Tory Leadership.  To become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Northern Ireland.  You are Theresa May. Andrea won’t appeal to Remainers, so you have to be perceived as the unity candidate.  Be prepared to be the puppet of the Brexiters, whilst hob-nobbing with the Remainers. But underneath you have two objectives: Stop Brexit Rid the Tory party of the Europe problem for generations You know the Brexiters have no plan.  You know that a “no deal” Brexit is unaffordable.  You know a soft Brexit will mean Britain becoming a vassel state, taking not giving guidance on rules and regulations. THE FOUNDATIONS OF A MASTER PLAN So what do you do? Firstly you appoint a Remainer as Chancellor. A pact with Philip Hammond that may mean he is PM in waiting. Secondly you appoint Brexiters to all the outward-looking cabinet positions- Foreign Secretary, Brexit