May's Master Plan - Tuesday's Update

I write this late afternoon on Tuesday 10 July. Theresa May has held her first Cabinet meeting since Boris Johnson resigned.  The two vice-chairs of the Conservative party have just resigned.  

The Times printed a front page this morning saying “Cabinet in crisis” “… on day of chaos”.

Yet Laura Kuennsberg of BBC reported at lunchtime “PM just arrived – looking remarkably relaxed after yday’s mayhem”.

How? Why?  If I was Theresa May I would be on the crest of a wave.  Everything going to plan.  Let me explain.  

UP UNTIL YESTERDAY LUNCHTIME, MONDAY

Since the Chequers deal was announced on Friday, I’ve been saying that this is just a stepping stone to Article 50 withdrawal.  Why?

Yesterday I wrote about what I believe to be May’s Master Plan.  Her objectives since being appointed leader have been, I believe:

• Withdraw Article 50 notification so UK remains in EU
• Consign Brexiters to history, so Europe is no longer the bugbear of the Tory party 

This has been my belief ever since she became leader in 2016, when she:

• Appointed an arch Remainer as Chancellor, Philip Hammond
• Appointed Brexiters to all key foreign-focused roles 

My belief was based on:

•  She’s smart.  Very smart
• She’s well-advised, not least by husband Philip
• Her campaigning to Remain in 2016 was not just out of loyalty, but because she believed it to be correct
• She knew Brexiters had no plan, so would hang themselves from the rope she provided
• As a former Chairman of the Tory party, she had an almost unrivalled appreciation of party dynamics

YESTERDAY IN PARLIAMENT

Yesterday afternoon, Monday, Theresa May presented the Chequers plan to Parliament and took questions for around 2 hours. She was adamant that the UK will be leaving the EU on 29 March 2019. 

I wondered if my view of her Master Plan is barking up the wrong tree. Maybe it is. But then I took a step back:

•  She knows full well that the proposal will be unacceptable to the EU, and will be rejected
• She knows that “no deal” is unaffordable economically, and does not address the UK’s need to collaborate in areas such as aviation, security and health

She's smart.  So let’s make a simple assumption.  She is a fine actor.

Then it all makes sense.

TODAY

Let’s summarise where she is today:

• She has lost several troublesome Brexiters from her Cabinet including the two most senior in David Davis and Boris Johnson
• She now has Remainers in key positions of Chancellor, Foreign Secretary and elsewhere
•  She has appointed a Brexiter to head up Brexit, and also given him a length of rope
• She has Cabinet agreement for a soft Brexit in the Chequers Proposal, having convinced the cabinet that “no deal” is not an option
• Key Brexiters, notably Jacob Rees-Mogg, have attacked the Chequers Proposal as worse than “no deal”.  It would leave the UK as a vassal state, or “colony” as Boris has put it in his resignation letter
• She has avoided a leadership challenge, as the rebels do not have the numbers prepared to risk a general election and the possibility of a Labour government.

The UK goes into the next stage of negotiations with the EU knowing the UK knows:

• ·         The Chequers proposal will be rejected as cherry-picking
• ·         “No deal” is not an option.  The UK can’t walk away.  Never could.
• ·         The EU wants UK to remain

THE ONLY OPTION

The only logical option now is to remain in the EU.

With Brexiters soundly beaten, there will be no more trouble from them for generations.

Both her objectives achieved.

THE FINAL STEP

But there has to be one final step.  Article 50 withdrawal.

The timing is now ideal. The Electoral Commission has investigated the official Leave campaign and found them to have overspent in what is a criminal manner. This is subject to further discussions and potential court cases.  But it is clear that the referendum result must be declared void. 

Oddly, there was no mention of that in yesterday’s Q&A session on the Chequers Proposal.  The vast majority of MPs still regard the result from the 2016 people as trumping all other considerations.

Yet we have a consensus of polls suggesting the 2018 people don’t want Brexit, including those who were 16 and 17 in June 2016.  That was then, this is now. 

Once MPs collectively realise the referendum result cannot stand, it is a simple matter to reverse the legislation based on that result.  Article 50 withdrawal is then virtually automatic, and I would expect the EU to accept it. 

Article 50 withdrawal is not a matter of if, only when.  Now’s the time for Theresa May to show her leadership.  Watch this space.