What Are Theresa May's Brexit Options?


Theresa May now has three options, not jist the first two:

  1. A 'Deal Brexit'
  2.  A 'No-Deal Brexit'
  3. To Stop Brexit

(1) A DEAL BREXIT

A Deal based on the Chequers Plan has effectively been rejected by the EU27 at this week's summit.  From the outset of the Article 50 notification, this summit was supposed to be when the 'Deal Brexit' was approved for onward approval by the various EU27 bodies that would still need to do so.

Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany, has stated the obvious that there should be a "significant difference between a membership of the EU and a partnership with the EU as a third country".  But the UK's negotiators have not understood that. The prospect of a 'Deal Brexit' is as good as dead.

In any case a 'Deal Brexit' based on the 'Chequers Plan' also has little support at home:
  • Remainers also regard it as inadequate, sharing Brexiters' concerns such as leaving the UK as a 'vassal state' with no say in EU through the transition period
  • The DUP, whose votes in support of Theresa May have been critical in her forming a Government, are worried about the effect on the Irish border, and the possibility of breaking up the Union.  They are threatening to withdraw support for the upcoming Budget and other votes

In addition, there is an almighty row brewing as to how a 'Deal Brexit' would be voted upon by MPs. 

Effectively a 'Deal Brexit' just isn’t an option. 


(2) A NO-DEAL BREXIT

A No-Deal Brexit only has support from the those who are prepared to do Brexit at any cost.  Costs will be substantial:
  • The vast majority of economists forecast a major loss of economic growth.  At an individual’s level, that means people losing their jobs and having to close their businesses.
  •  Substantial problems in collaboration, in aspects such as security, aviation and medicines
  • Substantial day-to-day problems, at least initially, in terms of foods (much of which is imported from continental Europe), manufacturing supply chains, and a whole host of other aspects
By all accounts, a No-Deal Brexit would not be passed by Parliament, nor be acceptable to all but a minority of the public.  Again a 'No-Deal Brexit' isn’t an option.


(3) STOP BREXIT

That only leaves one logical option.  One supported by 48% of the population in 2016.  Stop Brexit.

That was when only the concept f Brexit was being considered.  Now the reality of Brexit is better understood, and is more easily be conveyed to the public as reality rather than "Project Fear", polls suggest a far clearer majority to Remain.

The only obstacle is how the Government changes tack.   Theresa May’s opportunity to consign Brexiters to history.  They’ve failed to come up with a plan that is any way acceptable to the majority in Parliament, nor the EU27. They’ve had their chance. Years.  This week was supposed to be the conclusion of negotiations for the “framework” of agreements.  Time is up.

Now time to call the Brexiters for what they are.  Charlatans.  Consign them to history.  How Theresa does that is now her challenge.

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