Key Brexit Points 24 October 2018


The key points about Brexit today, 24 October 2018, are:

DEADLINE

The UK is due to leave the EU late on 29 March 2019, unless something happens to stop or postpone it.

Last week’s EU summit was supposed to be the deadline for a provisional deal on “the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union“ per Article 50(2)t.   There are various other approvals needed within both the EU and UK.

With all the tricky aspects remaining to be agreed, and the potential November summit cancelled, we are out of time for the March deadline.

The UK must either:

  •  Stop Brexit Now, or
  • Ask for an extension of the March leaving date, which according to Article 50(3) would only be if “the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period”


TIMESCALE

Ordinarily it takes 3-5 years to design and build siginifcant systems and premises, recruit personnel and train them.  This would have to be across a range of import/export aspects, and in all the cases where the UK as taking on responsibility for aspects currently covered by the EU.

This work can only sensibly start when the detail has been determined, not just the framework:

  • The framework has already taken 2 years without being completed
  • A further 2 years at least would be necessary for the detail, probably much more
  • Only then should the 3-5 years for the system build and implementation be started.
  •  Only leave the EU then

In other words, Brexit was really more like a 10-year project.  2 years in total was utterly unrealistic. 

Now to be ready for March 2019 is laughable, whether for No Deal or any other form of Brexit.

In any case, it is unlikely that there are skilled resources available to do so many projects simultaneously.


PEOPLES VOTE MARCH

Estimates vary around 700,000 people at the Peoples Vote March in London on Saturday 20 October 2018.   

Everyone I spoke to there were British nationals, who had travelled from places like Glasgow, Leeds, Exeter, Chesham, Cambridge, Sonning (Theresa May’s village) as well as various parts of London.  Plus ex-pats from France and Spain who had had no say in the referendum.

On the whole these were bright, well-qualified people.  A GP and his wife, a vet, 3 PhDs in science, a business consultant, nurses and many others.  All travelling at personal expense, in some cases considerable

The most striking was an elderly man, somewhat unsteady on his feet, who was going to join the end of the march.  He had travelled up from Exeter for the day, believing he had to do his bit to stop Brexit.

Indeed everyone I spoke to wanted to Stop Brexit.  A Peoples Vote would do so democratically.  But that takes time.


A PEOPLES VOTE IS DEMOCRATIC

Only people fearing a Remain vote in a second referendum are saying it would be undemocratic.

They know as well as everyone else that:

  • If the Brexit option passes muster, Leave can win again
  • The 2016 referendum was only on the concept of Brexit.  Now it is the reality
  • Some 2 million 18, 19 and 20 year olds were not old enough to vote in 2016.  Brexit affects them more than anyone else, and they deserve a say

As David Davis himself said, “If a democracy cannot change its mind, it ceases to be a democracy”.


THE 2016 VOTE WAS UNDEMOCRATIC

Democracy can only exist if conducted truthfully and within the law as set. 

Forecasts are always subject to estimates, but facts should not be distorted.  The Leave arguments were lies and deceit.  Promises that had no chance of being kept, which have proved to be the case.

Furthermore, the Electoral Commission has identified several key cases of violation of Electoral Law, and have referred them to the police as criminal acts. 

Altogether a fraudulent result in 2016.

Ordinarily the 2016 referendum result would have been declared void long ago.  Why so many MPs “respect” the result is deeply worrying.

Declare the result void, and Theresa May effectively has no authority to be holding negotiations to leave the EU.  Indeed the Article 50 notification would effectively become void under Article 50 (1).  This requires notification to withdraw to be “in accordance with its own constitutional requirements”.

The quickest way to #StopBrexit and retain existing membership terms?

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