Brexit - The Way Forward

Let’s look at the facts about Brexit, as of today 23 October 2018, and the way forward for Brexit:

THE FACTS

1. The UK will leave the EU at 2300 hrs on 29 March 2019 unless something happens to stop or delay departure .  That's not much more than 5 months away.
2. This is two years after the Withdrawal Notification was made under Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty
3. This notification was made 9 months after the Referendum, but still without a clear Brexit plan, and certainly not one that had widespread agreement
4. Jeremy Corbyn wanted to make that notification the day after the referendum took place, with absolutely no planning.  Brexit is still official Labour Party policy.
5.  When the Withdrawal Notification was made, e deadline for a deal was set for last week’s EU Summit
6.  This is because this is only the first step in a multi-step approval process within the EU27, which all takes time and where approval of a draft deal is not guaranteed.  As the BBC set out straight after the referendum in 2016:
   
   
7. The UK’s departure can be delayed, but only by agreement by all 27 EU member states
8. Article 50 does not stipulate how or if the Withdrawal Notification can be revoked.  The author says that it can be done unilaterally by UK.  This has now been referred to the European Court of Justice for a decision, which will take some weeks if not months
9. Theresa May announced yesterday (22/10/18) that negotiation of a deal was “95% complete” though the EU countered with 90%.  The remaining 50-10% is of course the most difficult part.  After all this time, no agreement on critical issues suggests there cannot be agreement.  Effectively the “Chequers Plan” that the UK has put forward has been rejected.
10.  The Brexiters, who want the UK to leave the EU, still cannot agree on an alternative plan.  Could be based on Norway EEA, Canadian free trade, or No Deal at all - amongst others. 
11. ‘No Deal’ would mean reverting to World Trade Organisation rules which in any case would require agreement by EU on how to split EU28 quotas, and then with other countries. A massive, long job.  Nor would WTO cover collaboration such as on security, flights and medicines. 
12. An idea has just arisen to extend the 21-month transition period, in which detail of the future arrangement would be made, to cover the very basics of the future relationship.  That would result in the UK laving without any real knowledge of the deal – a “Blind Brexit”
13. There is talk of a ‘divorce bill’ around 40 billion pounds.  This is at least five years of future net contributions and ignores the cost of setting up equivalent UK bodies to the EU functions.
14. The vast majority of economists expect any form of Brexit to reduce economic growth, and for a No Deal to produce a dramatic shrinkage.  A massive cost whatever way you look at it.
15. In any case the Referendum was won by a marginal 52%:48%, a difference of 1,269,501 votes.  Only 635,000 needed to have voted Remain instead of Leave for Remain to have won.
16. The Leave vote was won by lies and deceit, well documented. But also a number of criminal activities are alleged to have taken place, that the Electoral Commission has referred to the Metropolitan Police for investigation.  Ordinarily, the result would have been declared void by now.
17. Because “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed”, some 3 million EU27 citizens in the UK and over a million UK citizens in EU27 territories do not know where they stand
18. People cannot make plans to travel in Europe next Easter and Summer.  Scholl trips, holidays, etc
19. Businesses cannot make plans.   So they will need to invoke contingency plans by Christmas that will inevitably hurt jobs and the economy.  If they haven’t already done so, and many stories are coming in of business closures and moves due to Brexit.
20.  Some 700,000 people came from all over the UK to London last Saturday, plus expats from Europe.  Everyone I spoke to wants to stop Brexit, and wants to do so democratically through a Peoples Vote.  As David Davis himself said, “If a democracy cannot change its mind, itceases to be a democracy”.  Furthermore the 2016 vote was on the concept of Brexit.  Now it would be on the reality.
21. It takes time to arrange a further Referendum, which probably couldn’t occur before 2019.  That is far too late for the 29 March departure.
22. No specific Brexit proposal has widespread support.  The size of the Peoples Vote March on Saturday suggests polls are correct that a majority now want to StopBrexit

CONCLUSIONS

No business would embark on a project like this without a clear plan, and would certainly not continue if no agreement had been made by the deadline.  The Government is not behaving in a business-like manner.

There isn’t time to organise a referendum nor finalise a Deal unless the Withdrawal date of 29 March 2019 is extended.

Labour’s support for Brexit, and Corbyn’s ridiculous personal approach, means a General Election will solve nothing.  Only likely make matters worse.

The huge support for Stop Brexit means this view cannot be ignored.  It far exceedx support for any one Brexit option.  Indeed Stop Brexit should now be driving Government policy.

WAY FORWARD

Ordinarily, the referendum result would be declared void.   The Withdrawal Notification would then be withdrawn.  Indeed declared void, on basis that it did not comply with Article 50(1) “in accordance with its [UK’s] own constitutional requirement”.

If the Government does not feel it can stop Brexit by this or any other method, then a further Referendum must be organised, with Remain as a stated option.  

In which case the UK needs more time,  A request has to be made to the EU for the Withdrawal Date to be extended by at least a year.  That will avoid businesses having to invoke contingency plans, and allow everyone to make practical plans for 2019.  As the EU generally wants the UK to stay, this request should receive the necessary support.

The Government needs to act like this NOW.